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Be careful writing off Rudy.
Posted By Paul Gleiser On January 10, 2008 @ 2:45 pm In Rudy Giuliani | No Comments
Huckabee won Iowa. McCain won New Hampshire.
Rudy wasn’t competitive in either.
No one in New Hampshire, including me, was talking about Rudy.
But don’t draw the wrong conclusion. Rudy didn’t campaign in Iowa or New Hampshire.
Rudy concentrated his organization and his planning on key big states that follow Iowa and New Hampshire. States like Florida, California and Illinois. In these states and others, Rudy is far more competitive than Huckabee, McCain or Romney.
And Rudy leads in these states.
McCain’s campaign was out of money going in to New Hampshire. One of the things about the geography of New Hampshire, both physical and political, is that it’s possible for a candidate with meager resources to do well there. Just ask Jimmy Carter.
The New Hampshire win will give McCain enough gas to slog a bit further down the road, but absent a huge upset in one of the upcoming states, likely not enough to get to the finish line.
Romney’s disappointments, particularly in New Hampshire, will mean he’ll find money hard to come by unless he wants to start writing a string of very sizable personal checks.
Huckabee’s strength among among evangelical Christians means he will likely do well in South Carolina. But in California, New York, Illinois and New Jersey, that strength will be less meaningful and Huckabee will find himself the victim of a superior Rudy organization.
Only one candidate has the money and the organization to lead in the delegate-rich states that are now on the schedule. And his name is not Huckabee, Romney or McCain.
Watch out for Rudy.
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