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It’s still Obama’s race to lose. But only just.

Posted By Paul Gleiser On July 29, 2008 @ 9:44 am In Barak Obama,Electoral College,John McCain,Polls | No Comments


Click map above to go to Real Clear Politics.

The Real Clear Politics average polls in each state show Obama with an electoral vote lead of 238 to 163 with 137 electoral votes from 11 states rated as a “toss up.” The totals are reached by counting states that according to polling data either solidly favor or are leaning toward one candidate or another.

Ohio and Florida are again pivotal and will likely be the most-watched on Election Night. Bush won both states in 2000 and in 2004. If Obama wins either of Ohio or Florida, he is all but certain to win the election. The average of current polls shows Florida as a tie and shows Ohio favoring Obama by a narrow 1.5 percentage points.

If Obama loses both Ohio and Florida, he can still win the election by winning Michigan, which seems likely even though it’s showing as a toss up, along with Colorado (Bush by 4.7 in 2004) and any two of New Hampshire (Kerry by 1.3 in 2004), New Mexico (Bush by 0.7 in 2004) or Nevada (Bush by 2.6 in 2004). Thus in a sweep of Ohio and Florida by McCain, Colorado becomes pivotal to Obama.

The toss up states are characterized as such in the Real Clear Politics analysis because the average of the polling data falls well within the margin for error. That margin generally went against Obama throughout the primaries in his battle against Hillary Clinton.

The interactive Real Clear Politics Electoral College map (which allows you to construct your own electoral map) can be seen here [1].

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[1] Image: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

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