By Paul Gleiser | October 6, 2008 | Print This
Take a look at the map above. It’s not a pretty picture for John McCain. One month before the election and he’s in deep trouble. (All data is from the Real Clear Politics national average of polls.)
The electoral map tells the story. Put simply, Obama can lose Ohio and Florida, previously seen as “must win” states by both candidates, and still win the presidency. The fact that Obama leads in both states by 3.0 percentage points according to Real Clear Politics makes it difficult to project a sure win for McCain, even though Bush won both states in 2000 and 2004.
But let’s give McCain Florida and Ohio anyway for the purpose of this discussion. He’s still in trouble.
In order to win despite losing Florida and Ohio, Obama must only pick off any one of Colorado (Obama +3.0), Virgina (Obama +2.4), North Carolina (Obama +0.5), Missouri (McCain +1.7) or Indiana (McCain +2.2).
All of these states went for George W. Bush in 2004.
To be fair, it’s important to note that in all cases, the polling data falls within the margin for error. It’s also important to note that it’s a month before election day – an eternity in politics.
But the hard, cold truth for McCain is that unless a solid or leaning Obama state slides back into the McCain column in the next four weeks, Obama must only pick up one of seven states that remain in play while John McCain must run the table.
If you’re supporting John McCain, that’s an ugly picture.