British pollsters had their heads handed to them in 1992 when they all predicted a victory for the Labour party, led by Neil Kinnock. Instead, John Major kept the drive alive for the Conservative party, succeeding Margaret Thatcher.

By the 1992 election, Great Britain was in a recession and, as is always the case when there’s a recession, the sitting administration got the blame. Thus the polls in Great Britain showed that Labour would retake the government.

In the aftermath of their failure, the major polling organizations in Britain began a critical self-examination and determined that their data was wrong due to the “Shy Tory Factor.” The Shy Tory Factor simply held that many who intended to vote Tory (i.e. Conservative) were, in light of the growing unpopularity of the sitting Conservative government, reluctant to say so to a pollster.

As a result of this discovery, the British polling organizations began including consideration of this effect in their tabulations.

Enter George W. Bush in 2008.

Only two presidents in recent history – Harry Truman in 1952 and Richard Nixon upon his resignation in 1974 – have left office with poor approval numbers in a league with those of George W. Bush.

The Republican “brand” in 2008 is deeply tarnished. And thus those who would ordinarily call themselves Republicans might be, if there is a “Shy Republican Factor” reluctant to say so to a pollster.

Allowing for the impact of high rates of new voter registration and expected high turnout rates among young voters (which some data suggests hasn’t actually happened), the polling data that we’re seeing in the final days of the 2008 election requires us to believe that a very significant number of voters at one time voted conservative have now changed their core beliefs.

If that has in fact happened, Obama will win the election easily.

But if there is an American analog to the “Shy Tory Factor” that we will come to call the “Shy Republican Factor,” and if there is, in fact, a Bradley Effect to add to it, those shy Republicans could wind up being a lot less shy on Wednesday morning.

The lawsuit filed by Pennsylvania attorney Philip J. Berg against Barack Obama claiming that Obama is not legally qualified to hold the office of President of the United States has been dismissed.

The judge dismissed the case without ruling on Obama’s eligibility. The dismissal was based on the court’s ruling that Berg lacked standing to bring the suit.

Read the story here.

According to some of the better know political tracking polls (Gallup, CBS/New York Times, Rasumssen) Obama has as much as a double-digit lead over John McCain going into the final turn of the race.

But the poll that came closest to the actual certified results in 2004 was the Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP poll. And that poll shows Obama with a scant 1.1 percentage point lead as of Thursday, Oct. 23.

See the current poll results here. Set a bookmark for a daily update here.

Now McCain is using Joe the Plumber exlcusively in his latest TV ad buys in the battleground states.

See the commercial here.

Disclaimers:

You should take anything you read or see on the internet not with a grain, but with a fistful of salt.

And you should read the following story fully mindful of the fact that supporters of John McCain devoutly wish it to be true irrespective of actual facts.

For many months, the blogoshpere has been chasing around the idea that Barack Obama is not a natural born citizen of the United States and is therefore not eligible under the U.S. Constitution to be president. In response, the Obama campaign long ago posted online what the campaign said was a certified copy of Obama’s birth certificate showing his natural birth in the State of Hawaii.

On Aug. 21, 2008, Philip J. Berg, former Deputy Attorney General for the State of Pennsylvania and former Democratic candidate for governor, filed suit in Federal Court in Pennsylvania (Case no. 08-cv-4083) seeking a declaratory judgment and injunction against Obama on the grounds that he does not meet the constitutional requirements to hold the office of President of the United States. The suit demands that Obama produce certified documents for the court’s review that substantiate Obama’s claim to have been born in the United States.

The suit is pending.

As of now, the only thing that can be known for sure is that there is a lawsuit pending and lawsuits by their nature have to be answered and/or disposed of in some way or another by the defendant. You can ignore politically charged rhetoric. You cannot indefinitely ignore a lawsuit.

So does the story have legs? So far, judging by the fact that you haven’t seen or heard about it anywhere other than here or someplace else on the internet, you’d have to say no.

But there’s a lawsuit pending and it is one filed by a legitimate member of the Pennsylvania bar.

So here is a video that is admittedly produced by someone with an obvious axe to grind. Watch the video anyway and come to you own conclusion.

Joe Wurzelbacher is a plumber in Toledo, Ohio. In a now-famous encounter earlier this week, Sen. Obama told Joe the Plumber that he needed to raise Joe’s taxes in order to “spread the wealth.”

Joe got 15 separate mentions as each candidate tried to frame his policies based on the impact they would have on Joe the Plumber. McCain spoke directly to Joe and forced Obama to speak to Joe to rebut the statements of McCain.

By the end of the night, McCain had fired a few shots and had displayed a few bursts of passion and irritation. But Obama easily handled them all.

Obama’s task was fairly simple. Make no mistakes and run out the clock. McCain’s task was much more daunting. Deliver a blow strong enough to change the momentum of the campaign.

Obama clearly succeeded and in so doing, won the debate and most likely wrapped up the presidency.

Peggy Noonan says that the candidates are, “…playing Frisbee on the edge of a precipice.”

Her piece appears in the Wall Street Journal and can be read here.

Those who support John McCain were hoping for an “I paid for this microphone” or “Senator, you’re no Jack Kennnedy” moment at the second presidential debate Tuesday night. They were hoping for that rare but juicy moment in a national debate that gets played over and over on all of the networks. They were hoping for the kind of moment that changes the momentum and trajectory of a campaign.

Those who support John McCain know that the clock is running out and they hoped for such a moment.

It never came.

What we saw Tuesday evening was standard presidential debate fare. And that means Obama won.

The so-called “town hall” format, said to favor McCain, was a format in name only. Unlike the town hall meeting that John McCain held in Tyler during the Texas primary, where McCain answered audience questions as they came, moderator Tom Brokaw edited the questions submitted by live attendees and by those participating via the internet. He then boiled the debate down to standard debate questions that were answered by both candidates in standard, stump speech fashion.

On national security and foreign policy, an objective observer might be willing to call it advantage McCain. But on domestic policy, the economy and the current economic crisis, Obama used his smooth style and terrific voice to great advantage while McCain went “Blah, blah, blah, my friends, blah, blah blah.” The Democrats are actually quite vulnerable on the mortgage meltdown but McCain took no advantage.

The only real tension in the debate was the scolding of both candidates by Brokaw for failure to observe the time limits when giving their answers.

Beyond Brokaw’s fussiness about time, there were no fireworks. There was no naming of names. There was nothing said by either candidate that will be quoted years from now. There was no laughter. There was nothing memorable. There was nothing to move the campaign from its current status — Obama in the lead and pulling away.

On a couple of occasions, Obama stated the standard line about the failures of the Bush administration even in cases where Bush has had little to do with the topic Obama was addressing (the mortgage crisis being the most obvious). At no time did McCain take Obama to task for this tactic. Obama tied McCain to an unpopular president and McCain let it stand.

McCain went into tonight’s debate down by a couple of touchdowns. He never got within field goal range.

Take a look at the map above. It’s not a pretty picture for John McCain. One month before the election and he’s in deep trouble. (All data is from the Real Clear Politics national average of polls.)

The electoral map tells the story. Put simply, Obama can lose Ohio and Florida, previously seen as “must win” states by both candidates, and still win the presidency. The fact that Obama leads in both states by 3.0 percentage points according to Real Clear Politics makes it difficult to project a sure win for McCain, even though Bush won both states in 2000 and 2004.

But let’s give McCain Florida and Ohio anyway for the purpose of this discussion. He’s still in trouble.

In order to win despite losing Florida and Ohio, Obama must only pick off any one of Colorado (Obama +3.0), Virgina (Obama +2.4), North Carolina (Obama +0.5), Missouri (McCain +1.7) or Indiana (McCain +2.2).

All of these states went for George W. Bush in 2004.

To be fair, it’s important to note that in all cases, the polling data falls within the margin for error. It’s also important to note that it’s a month before election day – an eternity in politics.

But the hard, cold truth for McCain is that unless a solid or leaning Obama state slides back into the McCain column in the next four weeks, Obama must only pick up one of seven states that remain in play while John McCain must run the table.

If you’re supporting John McCain, that’s an ugly picture.

Here’s a roundup of reaction to Thursday night’s debate between VP candidates Joe Biden and Sarah Palin.

Byron York of National Review says it’s Palin by a wink.

Adam Nagourny in The New York Times characterized it as “not doing any obvious damage to the Republican presidential ticket.”

ABC’s George Stephanopoulos offers a report card on the candiates’ performances.

Fred Barnes of the Weekly Standard says Sarah Palin “changed her image overnight.”

Rich Lowry in the New York Post says “every Republican in America rejoiced last night.”