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Dr. Bob’s Weather Report and Forecast

WEATHER REPORT AND SUMMARY:
KTYR
VT [VALID TIME] THROUGH 01/29/2015@0530C
ISSUED: 01/28/2015 1626C

TYLER-LONGVIEW METROPOLITAN AREA FORECAST:
TONIGHT: mostly clear and mild, low lower 50s, south winds 10-15 mph;
THURSDAY: partly cloudy and turning cooler, high middle 60s, light west winds becoming northerly 10-15 mph and gusty by mid-day;
THURSDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy and colder, low upper 30s, north winds 10-15 mph;
FRIDAY: mostly cloudy and cooler, high middle 50s, northeast winds 5-10 mph;
FRIDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy, low lower 40s, east winds 5-10 mph;
SATURDAY: cloudy with a 50 percent chance for showers, high middle 50s, breezy with east winds 10-20 mph.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
SATURDAY NIGHT: cloudy with showers likely, low middle 40s, (70 percent probability for measurable precipitation;)
SUNDAY: cloudy with showers likely and perhaps a thunderstorm, high lower 50s, (70 percent probability for measurable precipitation;)
SUNDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance for light rain in the evening, low lower 30s;
MONDAY: partly cloudy, high middle 40s;
MONDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy, low lower 30s;
TUESDAY: partly cloudy, high lower 50s;
TUESDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance for light rain, low upper 30s;
WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy, high upper 50s.
MID-RANGE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 5-11, 2015:
Below normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.

TYLER CLIMATE DATA FOR January 28, 2015
(The report is for the 21 hours ending at 2100 Greenwich
Mean Time, 3:00 p.m. Central Standard Time. The maximum
and minimum temperatures represent the observations during the preceding fifteen hours, and precipitation during the preceding twenty-one hours. The temperature and cumulative precipitation observations are made at NWS/419207, Tyler, Texas City Office, 95.3W/32.3N, 158M.
MAXIMUM 78MINIMUM 42
PRECIPITATION 0.00
MONTH-TO-DATE PRECIPITATION 5.31
YEAR-TO-DATE PRECIPITATION 5.31

LONGVIEW CLIMATE DATA FOR January 28, 2015
(The report is for the 21 hours ending at 2100 Greenwich
Mean Time, 3:00 p.m. Central Standard Time. The maximum
and minimum temperatures represent observations during the preceding fifteen hours, while the precipitation represents observations during the preceding twenty-one hours. The observations are made at WMO/722470, Longview, Texas–East Texas Regional Airport, [94.7W/32.4N, 107M]
MAXIMUM 78
MINIMUM 41
PRECIPITATION 0.00
MONTH-TO-DATE PRECIPITATION 5.42
YEAR-TO-DATE PRECIPITATION 5.42

PUBLIC FORECAST EXPLANATION
ISSUED: 01/28/2015 1616C
It is another unseasonably warm afternoon in the area today. The moist air I thought we
would get did not show up until mid-afternoon. And so, we’re again in the middle to high 70s,
with southwest winds in the 10-20 mph range, and mostly fair skies except for some cirrus.
Moist air is forecast to continue moving ashore tonight. Dew points along the Coast are
near 60, and that could bring some advection fog as far north as Lufkin-Natchitoches in the
morning.
In the meantime, another cold front, which has already made it about one-third of the way
through the Texas Panhandle, will be arriving here around mid-day. Our highs tomorrow should
run 10-15 degrees below today’s, with moderate and gusty northwest winds.
Our temperatures go below normal Friday, and should stay near to slightly below normal
for at least the first half of next week.
We’re looking at two rain events during the next week: Saturday night into Sunday, and
next Wednesday.
An upper air trough, setting up over the Desert Southwest, will be the cause. Lead energy
shows up Saturday morning with moist air overrunning the shallow cool layer and interacting
with tomorrow’s front. By Saturday, it will be in the Gulf and trying to come back northward as
a warm front. Rain is most likely from Saturday night into late-afternoon Sunday.
Another and strong Arctic front will show up Sunday evening, ending the rain and giving
us a couple of chilly and dry days. The final piece of energy with the new upper air low will be
crossing at mid-week, and return rain.
Rainfall with the first installment looks to run around one inch with near 100 percent
areal coverage. It is far too early to forecast the mid-week rain. In fact, two of the three models
take the energy too far south to affect us. I’m basing my expectation of rain on what has
happened in similar situations this Winter. RKP

CODED CITIES FORECAST–TYR
ISSUED: 01/28/2015 1624C

DAY WX TEMP POP
Thursday PARTLY CLOUDY 52/67 00%/05%
Friday MOSTLY CLOUDY 39/54 05%/05%
Saturday SHOWERS 40/53 10%/50%

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