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What is your forecast for the summer of 2012?

Posted/updated on: May 22, 2012 at 9:18 am
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What is your forecast for the summer of 2012? Is this summer looking like a repeat of summer 2011 as far as temperatures and rainfall? It would be nice if we could just have a normal summer with average rainfall and temperatures.


I do not believe this Summer will be as hot nor as dry as was last Summer. My reasoning: the LaNina period in the East Central Equatorial Pacific has broken down. That would suggest normal rainfall. The continued presence of dry soils over much of this part of the country suggests that temperatures will run somewhat above normal–but nothing like what we had last Summer.
The two weaknesses in my assumptions:
a) There is another circulation pattern called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation–a massive upper air pattern which covers much of the Northern Hemispheric Pacific Ocean. We don’t fully understand that yet; and
b) The models are not yet taking into account decreased Arctic Ocean sea ice caused by the global warming–which is a fact.
Still, I think precipitation between now and late-August should run between 7.0 and 10.0 inches; we will have some 100-plus days–but nothing like the fifty-eight we had last year.

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