What is your prediction for drought probabilities in 2013?


ANSWER:

I believe we’ll run snear to below normal in rainfall through about March; beyond that, the elong-range outlooks are taking us back to normal. This sounds pretty reasonable as there is no significant signature in the Equatorial Pacific. The one problem with this outlook: we do not yet fully understand the effects of a circulation called the “PDO”–Pacific Decadal Oscillation. That’s why sticking with a near normal rainfall outlook after March 2013 looks valid.
We’ll know this time next year!
RKP

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