Yes, there is still a presidential election scheduled for this November. Yes, the Democrats still have to formally pick a nominee. Yes, the Republicans already have theirs.
We say all of these things just to remind you that even in a 24/7 news cycle dominated by COVID-19, the necessary political operations of the republic carry on, though somewhat haltingly.
It seems that we need reminding. Barely noticed outside the state, Wisconsin held its primary election yesterday over the objections of the Democratic National Committee and the Joe Biden campaign. Biden and the DNC had pushed to postpone the primary and Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, went along. But the governor’s executive order was overturned on the eve of the election by the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Coronavirus or no, voters turned out in person yesterday in the state that will hold the Democratic National Convention – now scheduled for August. The votes won’t be counted, however, until Monday.
Going into Wisconsin, Joe Biden held a comfortable lead in delegates. Biden currently has 1,217 of the 1,991 delegates that he needs in order to win the Democratic nomination on the first ballot in Milwaukee. Bernie Sanders trails at 914.
That’s the only lead the Joe Biden enjoys. With respect to the other key metric in politics – money – Biden is in serious trouble. The Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee have, between them, $225 million of cash already in hand. Biden has just $13 million – one seventeenth as much. Confined to the basement studio that he has set up in his Delaware home, Biden is restricted to YouTube campaign videos and Zoom meetings and Facetiming wealthy potential donors. He does not have the money – and is constrained by circumstances from raising the money – to dominate paid media this summer in the battleground states that he will need to win back from Donald Trump.
Nor can he hold rallies, shake hands, cup elbows and kiss babies in key precincts. Absent such events, Biden is garnering next to zero news coverage – or what political pros call “earned media.” (So little is Biden in the news that in searching Associated Press for a recent photo of him to place in this post, we found none since the debate with Bernie Sanders on March 15.)
Biden’s last good day in this campaign season was March 3 – Super Tuesday. Since then, he has been eclipsed by the COVID-19 story and is struggling to generate enthusiasm even among committed Democrats – never mind the much coveted “independents.”
Meanwhile, President Trump is on TV every single day briefing the American people on the administration’s efforts regarding the battle with the coronavirus. For the most part, the president is getting good marks. Several of the respected polls put American opinion of the president’s handling of the coronavirus crisis at about 60 percent approval.
Fifteen states have now postponed primary elections into the summer. As a result, assuming Biden continues to prevail, he won’t have the nomination sewn up until just a few weeks before the convention. Fundraising will suffer accordingly.
The Democratic National Convention has already been postponed. It remains to be seen if a more normal presidential campaign will be possible by summer. No one needs that to happen more than Joe Biden.