I did some math this morning using the latest vote totals from six states that are being contested by the Trump campaign. Those states are Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada.
The gap between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in those six states comes to 257,070 votes out of 24.8 million votes cast. That’s a difference of 1.04 percent.
But the race is actually closer. Much closer. And the Trump campaign is quite right to be challenging the results. Given the facts of this election, and the extraordinary conditions under which it was conducted – most especially the massive increase in mail-in ballots which are susceptible to fraud – and given the microscopically small margin by which Joe Biden holds his current apparent lead in the Electoral College, Trump owes it to the 71 million people who voted for him to stand his ground.
Here are the facts. This election actually comes down to a difference of 68,948 votes out of 14.8 million cast in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Wisconsin – a gap of 47 one hundredths of one percent. Or you can take out Wisconsin and substitute Arizona and come to almost exactly the same totals. Move Pennsylvania and any two of the other three to the Trump column, and Trump wins reelection.
The lynchpin in all of this is Pennsylvania with its 20 Electoral College votes. More specifically the lynchpin is Philadelphia County – a jurisdiction with a long history of election fraud. Republican election watchers complained on election night that Philadelphia County election workers kept those watchers at such a distance from the actual counting that it was impossible to actually see and verify the ballots.
This is critical given the fact that mail-in ballots constituted a vastly higher percentage of ballots cast than in any prior election. The Trump campaign alleges that late ballots were counted, that ballots with unverified signatures were counted and that mail-in ballots arrived in the dark of the night outside of the proper and legally mandated chain of custody. If the combination of such irregularities comes to as few as one out of 20 ballots in Philadelphia County alone, the state of Pennsylvania flips to Donald Trump.
The numbers necessary to flip Georgia, Wisconsin and Arizona are infinitely smaller – as in anyone with malfeasant intent would need to alter or manufacture only one of every 200 ballots.
Which brings us to this. It’s not really even about six states. It’s about the one largest metro county in each of those states – all of which are run by Democrats.
To be sure, Trump is trying to make a long, tough putt. In all likelihood, Joe Biden is going to be the 46th president.
But for the sake of whomever it is that takes the oath of office on January 20, as well as for the sake of future elections, it is worth taking note of the funny odor that surrounds this election and then tracking down its source.