“I took a hit in Iowa, and I will probably take a hit here,” said former vice president Joe Biden Friday night here in Manchester on the event of the Democrats’ seventh candidate debate of this presidential cycle.
Biden, for months now thought to be the Democratic front-runner, did in fact take a hit. He came in a distant fourth. His campaign is busy lowering expectations for New Hampshire, while saying that the South Carolina Primary on Feb. 29 will be his “firewall.”
None of that sounds like the words of a front-runner and Democrats know it. Thought to be the “moderate” Democratic candidate, Joe Biden’s sinking fortunes have establishment Democrats worried.
Bernie Sanders clobbered Hillary Clinton four years ago in New Hampshire. He took 60 percent of the popular vote to Mrs. Clinton’s 38 percent. Yet, under the Democratic Party’s arcane rules, he left New Hampshire virtually tied with Hillary on delegate count. More on that in a minute.
Voters here in New Hampshire who supported Bernie four years ago are likely to do so again. As a result, Bernie could have a really big night Tuesday.
But the grandees of the Democratic Party don’t want to hear it. First of all, Sanders isn’t even a Democrat. He’s an independent who caucuses in the Senate with the Democrats. But he is not beholden to the party for the support and fundraising that got him elected. So, he has no natural Democratic Party allegiances. From the perspective of Democratic Party elders, Sanders isn’t a member of the club.
But that’s not the big problem with Bernie for Democratic tribe elders.
The big problem is that they think that Bernie as nominee for the presidency will be a McGovern- in-’72-scale disaster for the party.
They believe that Bernie’s avowed socialism is too far left for the heartland. Dems fear that his policy positions are so radical that Democrats in key states will stay home rather than vote for him.
Establishment Democrats were counting on Biden. With Biden’s fortunes falling, the Dems are now in a scramble.
So here on the eve of the nation’s first presidential primary the question becomes; is there any way that the Democrats are going to let Bernie win? In 2016, under the Democratic Party’s arcane – some say rigged – system, Bernie clobbered Hillary in New Hampshire but Hillary nevertheless got 15 delegates to Bernie’s 16. Beating Hillary didn’t much help Bernie. Getting creamed by Bernie didn’t much hurt Hillary.
Is the same sort of thing in the offing for Bernie in 2020? And if so, who is the “Hillary of 2020” for the Democrats?
Some say it could be former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg, even though he’s not on a ballot anywhere until Super Tuesday next month. We’ll see.
Those of us who were at the Democratic Convention in Philly remember the high level of resentment on the part of Sanders supporters. Sanders was a good soldier and supported Hillary anyway. But if he continues to do well in 2020, the Dems’ convention in Milwaukee in July could get ugly.