Most of the brand-name polls have Joe Biden in the lead but it doesn’t feel that way in light of recent events. We start with yesterday.
On the south lawn of the White House President Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the foreign ministers of Bahrain and United Arab Emirates signed what are being called the Abraham Accords, a set of diplomatic pacts between the two Arab states and Israel. Just prior to the actual signing, the president said this:
Thanks to the great courage of the leaders of these three countries, we take a major stride toward a future in which people of all faiths and backgrounds live together in peace and prosperity. In a few moments these visionary leaders will sign the first two peace deals between Israel and the Arab state in more than a quarter century.”
For his efforts in brokering the deal, a member of the Norwegian parliament nominated the president for the Nobel Peace Prize. That nomination turned out to be the first of two Nobel nominations. That’s because last Friday a member of the Swedish parliament nominated President Trump for the Nobel prize for his brokering of a peace accord between Serbia and Kosovo, ending armed conflict that has been ongoing since 2008.
The president’s foreign policy victories come on the heels of news that he is gaining sharply among Hispanic voters, a key demographic in the swing states of Florida, Arizona and Nevada as Fox News’s Steve Cortes reports:
Well, you know, in Arizona and in a lot of other key battleground states, particularly Florida; I think New Mexico might well be a battleground this time as well, the Hispanic vote is critical. And the president is doing incredibly well right now among Hispanic voters. The most recent NBC showed the president for example in the state of Florida winning the Hispanic vote there. We saw a similar result from the Quinnipiac poll in the state of Florida.”
On the economic front, a COVID-wracked economy appears to be rebounding more quickly than economists were predicting in the spring at the height of the coronavirus shutdowns. From a high of 14.7 percent in April, the U.S. unemployment rate has fallen to 8.4 percent. Though that rate is sharply higher than the sub-four percent numbers of early in the year, following the coronavirus outbreak, the predictions of many economists had the unemployment rate in double digits through the end of 2020.
An economy doing better than expected is an electoral tailwind for an incumbent.
The countdown clock here at Decision 2020 shows 47 days until election day. Much can happen in a presidential campaign in 47 days. Yet the mounting evidence cannot be ignored that much is going right for President Trump.
In sports, late season performance more often than not is predictive of who will win the championship. As Dallas Cowboys head coach Tom Landry once said, you have to streak into the playoffs.
The president is on a bit of a streak at the moment. If he can maintain it, he will very likely win.