This morning’s leader board in the Democratic race for the presidential nomination is likely misleading. After primaries and caucuses in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, Bernie Sanders has 40 pledged delegates. Pete Buttigieg comes in second at 26, followed by Joe Biden at 13, Elizabeth Warren at eight and Amy Klobuchar at 7.
So far, 94 of the 1,991 delegates needed to win the nomination on the first ballot at the Democratic convention in July have been pledged. Another 54 delegates are up for grabs this Saturday in South Carolina.
But think of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina as the “pre-season.” It’s not an exact analogy. Unlike the pre-season in football, the votes do count. But they don’t count for much – just seven percent of the total needed for a first ballot nomination.
The season really gets underway this coming Tuesday. It’s called Super Tuesday and it bears that title for a reason. On Super Tuesday, primaries will be held in 14 states – including Texas – in which 1,357 delegates will be selected. A week from today, the Democratic Primary leader board will look very different.
Notably absent from that leader board at this writing is former New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg. Bloomberg made a strategic decision to bypass the “pre-season states.” His first opportunity to pick up delegates comes Tuesday.
Bloomberg’s campaign is utterly without precedent. He has so far spent a half billion dollars of his own money on TV and social media advertising. That has never been done before.
He has not held a single campaign event. He has not shaken a single hand or kissed a single baby. That has never been done before, either.
He has appeared in two debates so far. One was last night and is notable only for the fact that it wasn’t the complete disaster for Bloomberg that the Democratic debate in Nevada was last week.
At this writing Bernie Sanders has a double-digit lead in national polls at 28.8 percent over second place Joe Biden at 17.4 percent, according to the Real Clear Politics average. Bloomberg comes in a close third at 14.8 percent.
In three runs for the presidency, Joe Biden has yet to win a state primary. That has to change this Saturday in South Carolina or Biden is likely finished. Gaffes like this one at a candidate’s dinner in Charleston aren’t helping.
My name is Joe Biden and I’m a Democratic candidate for the United States Senate. Look me over, if you like what you see help out. If not, vote for the other Biden. Give me a look, though, OK?”
If you’re looking for votes, it’s helpful to be clear on what office you’re seeking. According to polls, Biden holds a narrow lead in South Carolina, down from double digits just a few weeks ago.
If Biden doesn’t win South Carolina, the race will likely quickly winnow down to a two-man contest between Bernie Sanders and Mike Bloomberg. And if Bloomberg’s never-been-tried-before Super Tuesday strategy is anything less than a roaring success, that two-man race could see Bernie with a commanding lead this time next week.