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Dr. Bob’s Weather Report and Forecast

Posted/updated on: April 17, 2015 at 5:56 pm   Print This Print This

WEATHER REPORT AND SUMMARY:
KTYR
VT [VALID TIME] THROUGH 04/18/2015@1000C
ISSUED: 04/17/2015 1756C

TYLER-LONGVIEW METROPOLITAN AREA FORECAST:
TONIGHT: mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely, low middle 60s, east winds about 5 mph, (70 percent probability for measurable precipitation);
SATURDAY: mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance for showers and thunderstormsy, high upper 70s, southeast winds 5-10 mph;
SATURDAY NIGHT: decreasing cloudiness with a 40 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the evening, low lower 60s, south winds about 5 mph;
SUNDAY: partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms, high lower 80s, southwest winds 10-15 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT: mostly clear, low middle 50s, northwest winds 5-10 mph;
MONDAY: mostly sunny, high lower 70s, northeast winds about 10 mph.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
MONDAY NIGHT: mostly clear, low lower 50s;
TUESDAY: partly cloudy, high lower 70s;
TUESDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy, low middle 50s;
WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy, high middle 70s;
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms, low near 60;
THURSDAY: mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms, high upper 70s.
THURSDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms, low lower 60s;
FRIDAY: mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms, high near 80.
MID-RANGE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 25-MAY 1, 2015:
Below normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
30-DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 2015:
Below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.
90-DAY OUTLOOK FOR LATE-SPRING THROUGH MID-SUMMER 2015:
Near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.

TYLER CLIMATE DATA FOR April 17, 2015
(The report is for the twemty hours ending at 2000 Greenwich
Mean Time, 3:00 p.m. Central Daylight-saving Time. The maximum
and minimum temperatures represent the observations during the preceding fourteen hours, and precipitation during the preceding twenty hours. The temperature and cumulative precipitation observations are made at NWS/419207, Tyler, Texas City Office, 95.3W/32.3N, 158M.
MAXIMUM 79
MINIMUM 58
PRECIPITATION 0.62
MONTH-TO-DATE PRECIPITATION 4.08
YEAR-TO-DATE PRECIPITATION 21.13

LONGVIEW CLIMATE DATA FOR April 17, 2015
(The report is for the twenty hours ending at 2000 Greenwich
Mean Time, 3:00 p.m. Central Daylight-saving Time. The maximum
and minimum temperatures represent observations during the preceding fourteen hours, while the precipitation represents observations during the preceding twenty hours. The observations are made at WMO/722470, Longview, Texas–East Texas Regional Airport, [94.7W/32.4N, 107M]
MAXIMUM 80
MINIMUM 61
PRECIPITATION 1.08
MONTH-TO-DATE PRECIPITATION 3.80
YEAR-TO-DATE PRECIPITATION 20.77

PUBLIC FORECAST EXPLANATION
ISSUED: 04/17/2015 1754C
AMENDED FOR CORRECTED WORDING. RKP

PUBLIC FORECAST EXPLANATION
ISSUED: 04/17/2015 1451C
Thunderstorms are already developing, and are concentrating over South Central and
Southwest Texas as we believed this morning. It appears as if it will be after dark before the
activity reaches here. Given the timing, severe weather looks less likely tonight than was the
case yesterday evening.
Otherwise, the Four Corners low is still in place. Disturbances continue to come around
it, and we’re looking at the low actually starting its eastward movement tomorrow. Thus, rain
chances continue for Saturday. With the atmosphere likely pretty well re-stabilized by the time
that gets here, severe weather does not look like a big threat for Saturday.
The other question is rainfall amounts. My thinking is that those will be heaviest well to
our south over the next 36 hours the same places which have already had very heavy rains. I still
think our QPF for the remainder of this event will run around one inch.
We then get to whether thunderstorms will re-develop ahead of the cold front when it
finally gets here Sunday afternoon. Again, I’m going with a negative on that one, since the upper
air low should be out of range by then.
The upper air flow should be zonal next week. This would suggest low-end shower
chances for much of the week, with temperatures getting back close to normal by mid-week.
The next significant system still looks to show up around the 25th or 26th though the
models are less certain on that solution today than they were earlier this week.
At mid-afternoon today, skies were variably cloudy, temperatures were near 80, and
winds were light.
The heaviest rainfall reported this morning was 3.10 inches from near Rusk RKP

CODED CITIES FORECAST–TYR
ISSUED: 04/17/2015 1545C

DAY WX TEMP POP
Saturday SHOWERS 64/77 70%/50%
Sunday PARTLY CLOUDY 61/82 40%/20%
Monday SUNNY 54/73 10%/05%


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Regional Radar

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Dr. Bob’s Weather Report and Forecast

Posted/updated on: April 17, 2015 at 5:56 pm   Print This Print This

WEATHER REPORT AND SUMMARY:
KTYR
VT [VALID TIME] THROUGH 04/18/2015@1000C
ISSUED: 04/17/2015 1756C

TYLER-LONGVIEW METROPOLITAN AREA FORECAST:
TONIGHT: mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely, low middle 60s, east winds about 5 mph, (70 percent probability for measurable precipitation);
SATURDAY: mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance for showers and thunderstormsy, high upper 70s, southeast winds 5-10 mph;
SATURDAY NIGHT: decreasing cloudiness with a 40 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the evening, low lower 60s, south winds about 5 mph;
SUNDAY: partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms, high lower 80s, southwest winds 10-15 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT: mostly clear, low middle 50s, northwest winds 5-10 mph;
MONDAY: mostly sunny, high lower 70s, northeast winds about 10 mph.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
MONDAY NIGHT: mostly clear, low lower 50s;
TUESDAY: partly cloudy, high lower 70s;
TUESDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy, low middle 50s;
WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy, high middle 70s;
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms, low near 60;
THURSDAY: mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms, high upper 70s.
THURSDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms, low lower 60s;
FRIDAY: mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms, high near 80.
MID-RANGE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 25-MAY 1, 2015:
Below normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
30-DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 2015:
Below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.
90-DAY OUTLOOK FOR LATE-SPRING THROUGH MID-SUMMER 2015:
Near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.

TYLER CLIMATE DATA FOR April 17, 2015
(The report is for the twemty hours ending at 2000 Greenwich
Mean Time, 3:00 p.m. Central Daylight-saving Time. The maximum
and minimum temperatures represent the observations during the preceding fourteen hours, and precipitation during the preceding twenty hours. The temperature and cumulative precipitation observations are made at NWS/419207, Tyler, Texas City Office, 95.3W/32.3N, 158M.
MAXIMUM 79
MINIMUM 58
PRECIPITATION 0.62
MONTH-TO-DATE PRECIPITATION 4.08
YEAR-TO-DATE PRECIPITATION 21.13

LONGVIEW CLIMATE DATA FOR April 17, 2015
(The report is for the twenty hours ending at 2000 Greenwich
Mean Time, 3:00 p.m. Central Daylight-saving Time. The maximum
and minimum temperatures represent observations during the preceding fourteen hours, while the precipitation represents observations during the preceding twenty hours. The observations are made at WMO/722470, Longview, Texas–East Texas Regional Airport, [94.7W/32.4N, 107M]
MAXIMUM 80
MINIMUM 61
PRECIPITATION 1.08
MONTH-TO-DATE PRECIPITATION 3.80
YEAR-TO-DATE PRECIPITATION 20.77

PUBLIC FORECAST EXPLANATION
ISSUED: 04/17/2015 1754C
AMENDED FOR CORRECTED WORDING. RKP

PUBLIC FORECAST EXPLANATION
ISSUED: 04/17/2015 1451C
Thunderstorms are already developing, and are concentrating over South Central and
Southwest Texas as we believed this morning. It appears as if it will be after dark before the
activity reaches here. Given the timing, severe weather looks less likely tonight than was the
case yesterday evening.
Otherwise, the Four Corners low is still in place. Disturbances continue to come around
it, and we’re looking at the low actually starting its eastward movement tomorrow. Thus, rain
chances continue for Saturday. With the atmosphere likely pretty well re-stabilized by the time
that gets here, severe weather does not look like a big threat for Saturday.
The other question is rainfall amounts. My thinking is that those will be heaviest well to
our south over the next 36 hours the same places which have already had very heavy rains. I still
think our QPF for the remainder of this event will run around one inch.
We then get to whether thunderstorms will re-develop ahead of the cold front when it
finally gets here Sunday afternoon. Again, I’m going with a negative on that one, since the upper
air low should be out of range by then.
The upper air flow should be zonal next week. This would suggest low-end shower
chances for much of the week, with temperatures getting back close to normal by mid-week.
The next significant system still looks to show up around the 25th or 26th though the
models are less certain on that solution today than they were earlier this week.
At mid-afternoon today, skies were variably cloudy, temperatures were near 80, and
winds were light.
The heaviest rainfall reported this morning was 3.10 inches from near Rusk RKP

CODED CITIES FORECAST–TYR
ISSUED: 04/17/2015 1545C

DAY WX TEMP POP
Saturday SHOWERS 64/77 70%/50%
Sunday PARTLY CLOUDY 61/82 40%/20%
Monday SUNNY 54/73 10%/05%


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Ft. Worth/Dallas

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Ft Worth Radar Graphic

Animated Ft. Worth Version (Weather Underground site)

Thanks to Weather Underground for the use of the maps!

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